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Microsoft PowerPoint
Joint UNCTAD, IMF and World Bank MTDS Workshop … What works will vary – but there are some things not to do … Content and presentation varies widely – what works for you … Reproduction of the World Bank/IMF Aide Memoire … Detailed discussion of all the steps utilized in the MTDS process … Costs and risks to be managed … Description of debt levels and trends, including drivers … Composition by creditor, currency, interest type, etc … Constraints on policy choices regarding debt portfolio … FX debt (as % of MTDS debt …
Size: 303KB

Microsoft PowerPoint
UNCTAD, World Bank and IMF Workshop … The structure of a simple scenario analysis model … How are scenario models used in practice … A specific representation of something more general and usually more complex … understand the relationships between the components of a system … to predict how system will operate under a new policy or in a new environment … What MAY WE Need a Model: PROBLEM DEFINITION … Public Debt Management (PDM) uses bonds/bills/loans to meet financing needs of the government considering …
Size: 149KB

Microsoft PowerPoint
UNCTAD, World Bank and IMF Workshop … What are the links between macroeconomic policy and the formulation of debt management strategy … How do these links operate in practice … Feedback from MTDS and macroeconomic policy … DM Strategy can improve the functioning of the financial system … Why looking at links between MTDS and Macro Framework … Sudden devaluation of the peso led to capital flight and a run on reserves of the Central Bank and government debt crisis exacerbated by a large stock of short-term debt …
Size: 171KB

Microsoft PowerPoint
UNCTAD, World Bank and IMF Workshop … The cash flows as well as the cost and risk of a given debt management strategy will depend on the future path of interest (and exchange rates), which are unknown … Ask analysts to prepare forecasts and take an average … Link to projections for policy rates, inflation, and GDP growth … Use market information, perhaps even data from more developed markets … Yield curve is snapshot in time of yields showing the relationship between yield and maturity (should consist of …
Size: 240KB

Microsoft PowerPoint
UNCTAD, World Bank and IMF Workshop … Risk scenarios are deviations from the baseline scenario … What are the cost and risk implications of adverse scenarios … Risk is exogenous, beyond control of the debt manager … A shift in the entire yield curve … Plot past rates/difference 1-10 years … Eye-ball the frequency of large shocks … Different paths of evolution / Scenario Trees … Using derivative prices if they exist … Significant departure of debt servicing costs from the baseline projections may result from …
Size: 4MB

Microsoft PowerPoint
The MTDS focuses on [..] government debt including both external and domestic debt and [loan guarantees … Outstanding debt balance by residenceResident Lenders Non-resident Lenders 440130000 1433020000 Outstanding debt balance by currencyUSD SDR EUR JPY CHF NOK 48.718996265247 52.362644685497436 1725.4364377999993 0 19.106602313746489 3.0635147290838787 … Current debt portfolio – […]government debt – as of December 31, 2013 (cont … .) Outstanding Debt by Interest Rate TypeVariable …
Size: 3MB

Microsoft PowerPoint
UNCTAD, World Bank and IMF Workshop … “Public debt management is the process of establishing and implementing a strategy for managing debt to achieve the government’s financing, risk, cost objectives and other goals, such as developing the domestic debt market … -Guidelines for Public Debt Management: IMF/World Bank, 2001 … Ensures resources available for public investment needs … Influences availability of resources for other priorities … Influences the realism of Government budgets and plans …
Size: 232KB

Microsoft PowerPoint
UNCTAD, World Bank and IMF Workshop … Identify potential sources of finance, their financial characteristics, availability and desirability of use … An assessment of the characteristics, including the cost and risk, of all available and potential financing instruments and sources … Identification of any constraints, particularly on issue size … Identify steps necessary to improve access to or terms of these instruments … Traditional concessional resources may not available on ongoing basis …
Size: 245KB

Microsoft PowerPoint
UNCTAD, World Bank and IMF Workshop … What works will vary – but there are some things not to do … Content and presentation varies widely – what works for you … Reproduction of the World Bank/IMF Aide Memoire … Detailed discussion of all the steps utilized in the MTDS process … Costs and risks to be managed … Description of debt levels and trends, including drivers … Composition by creditor, currency, interest type, etc … Constraints on policy choices regarding debt portfolio … Description of a single, clear strategy …
Size: 201KB

Microsoft PowerPoint
UNCTAD, World Bank and IMF Workshop … Identify main objectives for public debt management and define the scope of the MTDS … Definition of the scope of the MTDS (i.e. what types of debt are to be covered … Governance – why do we need clear definitions of objectives and scope … What are the objectives for debt management … What is the scope for debt management … Objectives – ideally set by the legislature … Debt management may have significant repercussions for future tax and spending levels, extending beyond the …
Size: 150KB

Microsoft PowerPoint
Identifying and Managing Cost and Risk on Public Debt Portfolio: Step 2 … UNCTAD, World Bank and IMF Workshop … Step 2: Cost & risk of existing debt … Cost, risk, and the choice of time horizon … Identify outstanding debt and its composition … Calculate basic cost and risk indicators … Identify the current debt management strategy … Debt servicing profile of outstanding debt … Why do we need to understand the current portfolio … Provides clues on which strategies to explore … Is the existing cost and risk structure …
Size: 1MB