Global Merchandise Trade Nowcast Bulletin

Global Merchandise Trade NowcastingThe UNCTAD nowcasts are estimates of the current trends of global trade in goods based on the most recent information available. These are not forecasts of future periods obtained from a structural economic model, but rather estimates of the current period from a dynamic statistical model linking the co-movements of many variables. Even if global trade statistics are not yet published, the nowcast methodology can produce estimates based on the information available from other variables that are released either more frequently or in a timelier manner.

The nowcasts presented correspond to total merchandise trade in value and volumes for the previous and current quarters. The preceding period is included to fill the publication gap: while the preceding quarter has elapsed, official figures will only be available after several months. Timely information is obtained from numerous official statistics and country- and regional-level indicators of trade, industrial production, domestic trade, freight transportation, trade prices, and business and consumer surveys.

The Global Merchandise Trade Nowcast Bulletin is released once per month, reflecting new information releases and data revisions. It will highlight not only the most recent estimates, but also their recent evolution as new statistical information became available. For more details on the methodology and underlying indicators, see this working paper and this presentation.



Global Merchandise Trade Nowcast, May 2020 (UNCTAD/GDS/DSI/MISC/2020/3)

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