Commonwealth Business Summit 2025: Plenary panel - navigating global trade uncertainty and commonwealth resilience

Excellencies,
Distinguished Business Leaders,
Ladies and Gentlemen,

It is a great pleasure to be with you at this important Summit.

We are living in a time when trade policy news are making frequent headlines and generate widespread uncertainty for countries, businesses, and communities alike.

Today, I would like to share reflections from UN Trade and Development on what is happening to global trade and the growing uncertainty we are seeing, and suggest some pathways to help navigate these challenges.

Let me begin with some encouraging news.

In 2024, global trade in goods and services reached a record 33.2 trillion US dollars — a nearly 4% increase over 2023.

This reflects the resilience of global trade, even in the face of severe disruptions such as the war in Ukraine or the crisis in the Red Sea.

For many developing countries, trade remains a lifeline — generating jobs, supporting livelihoods, and providing essential government revenue.

However, this year, trade tensions have intensified, creating new levels of uncertainty and instability.

Since the start of the year, several unilateral tariff increases — some targeting specific countries, others specific sectors or products, have been introduced or announced. Additional country-specific tariffs may further be applied at the beginning of July, following a 90-day pause.

These measures restrict market access for all trading partners — including many countries that barely contribute to global trade imbalances. UNCTAD has pointed out that these measures hit vulnerable countries the hardest — many of them members of the Commonwealth. Least developed countries, for instance, account for only 1.5% of the U.S. trade deficit, yet they are among those most affected by these new tariffs.

Unilateral trade measures are not new, but their numbers have increased dramatically in the past decade. Between 2010 and 2014, the average number of new trade policy interventions — both liberalizing and restrictive — stood at approximately 190 per year. Between 2020 and 2024, this number surged to over 1,200 a year.

Such measures erode confidence in the WTO-based multilateral trading system, which has provided stability and predictability, particularly for developing countries. They also threaten the preferential market access that developing countries enjoy under programmes such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

Trade policy uncertainty comes with big costs. It discourages investment, disrupts supply chains, delays business decisions, and leads to costly and inefficient adjustments. It also accelerates trends such as “friend-shoring,” where trade and investment shift toward politically aligned partners, further fragmenting global trade.

Excellencies,
Ladies and Gentlemen,

So, the big question is: How do handle this new, more uncertain global trade landscape?

Let me offer four points for consideration.

First, the growing value of regional markets.

A prime example is the African Continental Free Trade Area – the AfCFTA. As UNCTAD’s Secretary-General Grynspan recently emphasized in Côte d'Ivoire, full implementation of the AfCFTA can make Africa emerge stronger, more resilient and more competitive. Combined with infrastructure investment, the AfCFTA could create a $3.4 trillion market. Intra-African trade remains one of the continent’s greatest untapped opportunities: It is more diversified and higher in value-added than trade with external partners.

In 2024, intra-African trade grew by an impressive 9%, yet it still represents only 16% of total African exports. We also know that trade within deep regional trade agreements has proven almost twice as resilient as trade outside such agreements. Strengthening intra-Commonwealth trade presents similar opportunities — both for growth and for building resilience.

Not only regional trade but also South-South trade offer significant growth opportunities. Notably, between 2018 and 2023, South-South trade expanded annually on average 5.5%, outpacing North-North trade, which grew by 3.3%. This shift underscores the rising economic strength and influence of the Global South. Over the past three decades, the Global South's share of global output has more than doubled, rising from 18% to 40%. Its share of global merchandise exports increased from 25% to 44%, while its share of inward foreign direct investment soared from 30% to 65%. As a result, the Global South has emerged as a key driver of economic transformation, presenting promising market opportunities for developing countries.

Second, reducing trade costs through trade facilitation.

Trade facilitation is a powerful driver of competitiveness. By simplifying and modernizing border procedures, we can significantly lower transaction costs and reduce delays.

Namibia is an excellent example.

By using a Reform Tracker, building capacity, and developing a Trade Facilitation Roadmap, Namibia raised its implementation score for the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement from 26% in 2023 to 86% by early 2025.

What this implied, for example for the Trans-Kalahari border: Streamlining customs clearance has helped traders save over 3 million US dollars and 217,500 hours every year. We are proud to have supported Namibia through the Accelerate Trade Facilitation Programme, alongside the World Customs Organization and the United Kingdom.

Namibia’s experience also highlights the value of Commonwealth cooperation in sharing best practices and building resilient trade systems.

Third, strengthening entrepreneurship and supporting MSMEs.

Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) are the backbone of our economies. In Africa, SMEs account for approximately 80% of employment. Yet many MSMEs struggle to get affordable financing, adopt new technologies, and build resilience against crises.

Supporting MSMEs means having solid policies in place: access to credit, digital infrastructure, training, mentoring, and market linkages. UNCTAD’s Empretec programme can help with this, and many Commonwealth countries are already benefiting from Empretec centers. We stand ready to expand these efforts.

I also want to stress how important it is to foster youth entrepreneurship, especially with Africa’s young and dynamic population. UNCTAD, together with the Commonwealth Secretariat, has issued a policy guide to strengthen youth entrepreneurship, based on our Entrepreneurship Framework. We are updating this framework to address both digital and sustainable transitions.

And my final point is on seizing opportunities that arise from the current context.

The Red Sea crisis at the end of 2023 and early 2024 caused major disruptions to global shipping routes. Vessels had to go around the African continent, adding about 12 days to trips between Asia and Europe — increasing transit times by about 30%. However, this also meant a sharp rise in vessel arrivals at African ports, particularly in South Africa, opening new opportunities for maritime trade.

To make the most of these changes, African countries need to invest in port infrastructure, boost cargo handling capacity, and improve coordination among border agencies. With the right investments, disruptions can turn into new opportunities for trade growth.

Excellencies,
Ladies and Gentlemen,

The world is dynamic. As we move into a more multipolar world, with a rising global South, many new opportunities will emerge. But to seize these opportunities, we need resilience, innovation, cooperation — and a commitment to an open, predictable, and inclusive trading system.

UN Trade and Development is ready to support countries in this journey.

Thank you.