Debt portfolio analysis mission to Guinea

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Participants at the DPA workshop in Guinea



After successfully completing its database and publishing its debt statistical bulletin in 2023, the Republic of Guinea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance started building capacity for debt analysis. A workshop on debt portfolio analysis (DPA) took place at the debt office DND-APD (La Direction Nationale de la Dette et de l’Aide Publique au Développement) in Conakry from 6 to 17 of November 2023. Guinea also participated in the workshop Annual Borrowing Plan organized by the UNCTAD jointly with the World Bank. 

Participants at the DPA workshop in GuineaThe debt portfolio analysis workshop, delivered by one DMFAS staff and two debt experts from Morocco and Togo, trained 10 analysts of the middle office. Participants explored the significance of debt in the macroeconomic context of a country, the main debt indicators (solvency and liquidity), cost/risk indicators (practical exercises using the actual DMFAS database), and the use of DPA to monitor the implementation of the debt strategy. 

As a result, the participants enthusiastically produced a draft debt portfolio review (DPR) which will be available internally for the middle office and the Ministry’s authorities. The DPR will be updated every six months during the first year and then quarterly for its regular publication on the Ministry’s website. The DPR includes a brief overview and a list of prevailing ratios, as recommended by the Debt Management Performance Assessment methodology for monitoring debt sustainability and liquidity risks. It also includes indicators such as average terms to maturity (ATM) and to refix (ATR), as well as key graphs and tables such as the maturity profile.

The workshop induced lively and fruitful debates amongst the participants and the document will provide a powerful insight for the government on the exposure to risks. It will also become a benchmarking tool of the future Guinean borrowing plan that the debt office is planning to do in 2024. 

The project part of a larger support project aiming at public financial sector reform (Projet d'Appui à la Gestion Economique et Financière -PAGEF) which is financed by the Agence Française de Développement (AFD) and implemented in collaboration with Expertise France, has advanced dynamically since its inception in 2022. 

After two years of implementation, results include complete recording of central government debt instruments, publication of a debt statistics bulletin and implementation of data validation procedures. The debt office is currently concentrating its efforts on debt data analysis and strategy formulation. For 2024, several activities are foreseen to further strengthen operational and analytical capacities such as a workshop on debt management procedures, management of contingent liabilities and Public Private Partnerships (PPPs), and a seminar on understanding capital markets.