UNCTAD16 ministerial roundtable: Regionalism in a time of uncertainty

Good afternoon,

Honorable ministers, excellencies, ladies and gentlemen,

Dear members of the panel,

Thank you for being with us.

Welcome to this ministerial roundtable. We have always known that when trade turns turbulent, neighbors matter. Regional cooperation offers something increasingly scarce in today's world: predictability, proximity and practical pathways forward. But regionalism today also goes beyond geography – and we see more and more flexible arrangements between countries because everybody understands that this is not a world to be travelled alone.

Before our ministers speak, I’ll make 3 points: first, about the surge in uncertainty; second, about who bears the cost; third, about how regionalism can respond.

I start with the uncertainty. For decades, trade was a cornerstone of global growth. Today, it operates under growing unpredictability.

Between 2020 and 2024, countries implemented a staggering average of 1,200 new unilateral trade actions annually, compared to just 190 per year a decade earlier. That's a sixfold increase.

These measures erode core trade principles like non-discrimination, transparency, reciprocity. When rules keep changing, businesses delay investment, exporters lose markets and growth slows. And we have said that probably uncertainty is the highest tariff of all.

This brings me to who pays the price. Vulnerable nations bear a disproportionate burden.

They lack the capacity to adapt quickly to shifting policy landscapes, the diplomatic weight to influence outcomes or the market size to absorb shocks. For developing countries, uncertainty means shrinking market access, reduced investor confidence, higher barriers to growth and threats to hard-won stability. For small firms and entrepreneurs – the backbone of developing economies – it means fewer export opportunities, less investment, slower growth, and fewer jobs created.

My third point is about the path forward: open regionalism. Even in this turbulent environment, regionsliam offers a pragmatic response.

History shows that when multilateral progress stalls, regional initiatives fill the gap with innovative solutions.

From ASEAN to the African Continental Free Trade Area, regional cooperation has enabled firms to expand markets, unlock investment opportunities and create jobs within communities that understand each other's challenges.

But regionalism doesn't replace multilateralism – it complements and reinforces it.

Regional platforms can serve as laboratories for integration, pioneering approaches to digital trade, sustainability and resilience that may later scale up globally. They deliver tangible benefits within regions while strengthening the broader trading system. In an era of geopolitical divides, they offer spaces where like-minded countries can build shared prosperity, as exports to regional markets usually have more value add and can be more countercyclical.

We call this “open” regionalism, not to be confused with regionalism that just wants to separate itself from global markets. We want regionalism where countries can integrate in a smarter way into the global economy.

It is called open regionalism as it is not only regionalism – that, in the past was a way to get away from the global markets and not to be productive and more competitive in the global market.

Excellencies,

Over the next 90 minutes, you'll share experiences from ASEAN, the African Continental Free Trade Area and the Global System of Trade Preferences among Developing Countries.

Through these examples of unity and openness – to neighbours close and far – we'll explore how regionalism can provide the certainty that trade requires and the momentum that development demands.

UNCTAD has supported regional integration throughout our history, and we stand ready to help you harness it for the future because, as I have said many times, regionalism is back in the agenda.

With that, thank you very much for being with us and have a very fruitful discussion. I thank you.