Mr. I-Ben Natangwe Nashandi, Executive Secretary of the NPC,
Ms. Hopolang Phororo, UN Resident Coordinator for Namibia, Distinguished representatives of the Ministry of Industries, Mines and Energy, the Ministry of International Relations and Trade, and the Embassy of Japan in Namibia,
Business leaders,
Dear friends,
Thank you, and good day to you all. It is a privilege to be in Windhoek. Before I begin, I want to thank the Government of Namibia – and in particular the National Planning Commission – for co-organizing this launch and for the close partnership that made this work possible. I also want to recognize the Government of Japan, which funded this project, and the UNCTAD team led by Clovis Freire, who conducted this comprehensive assessment in less than nine months, working alongside Namibian researchers, industry experts, and policymakers. What we present today was built together, but it belongs to Namibia.
I come to Windhoek from Lusaka, where two days ago we presented an identical study for Zambia, and before that from the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, where we launched our latest Least Developed Countries Report on services as a lever for development. In each stop, the question is the same: how does a country change what it produces, so that what it produces can change the country?
This is structural transformation – the subject at the core of this study and perhaps the oldest, most important question of development economics itself.
Because what separates a wealthy economy from a poor one is not, ultimately, the amount of money flowing through it. It is what that economy makes. A ton of copper ore ships out as concentrate; it returns months later as electrical cable, sold back at a multiple. The mineral is the same. What changes is the work that surrounds it – the cutter, the engineer, the technician, the small firm that supplies the parts. Each of those steps is a job, a skill, a business. Multiply that across an economy, and you have prosperity that reaches beyond the mine gate. That is what development looks like in practice.
Now, this old challenge meets a new moment. The world is in the middle of the largest energy transformation in a century, perhaps ever. Electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar grids, battery storage – all of them run on critical minerals. Lithium, copper, manganese, graphite, rare earths. Demand is surging, and Namibia holds a remarkable range of these minerals. The Government has already signalled its intent – the 2023 export ban on unprocessed lithium and other critical minerals was a clear statement: Namibia's resources should be processed in Namibia. The Minerals Beneficiation Strategy points in the same direction. The ambition is there. But turning ambition into factories, jobs, and exports – that is the hard part.
Because everyone knows what the challenges are. Namibia does not need a boom in clean technologies to know about the importance of structural transformation. Commodity-dependent countries have not diversified for a lack of knowledge, much less for a lack of trying. They have not diversified because diversifying is hard. It requires optimal investments when resources are scarce. Export markets that are never guaranteed. Skills that are not taught in classrooms but learned on the job. The problem is not the “what”. It is the “how”.
Imagine you are a policymaker, and an international organization tells you to “diversify”. Your first question is: into what? Your second is: starting from where?
The usual advice does not answer these questions. It tells you to cross the river without telling you where the stones are. That is what this report does differently. I want to highlight three things about it.
First, the method. Our teams used what economists call economic complexity analysis, and the intuition behind it is worth explaining. Every product a country makes – whether copper concentrate, canned fish, or circuit boards – requires a specific set of capabilities: certain skills, certain machines, certain regulations, certain suppliers. Countries do not jump randomly from one product to another. They move into products that are nearby – products that need similar capabilities to the ones they already have. Picture a map where every product is connected to its neighbours by shared know-how. That map is called the product space, and it lets us do something very specific: take everything Namibia exports today and identify the products it is best positioned to move into next – not based on what looks good in a PowerPoint, but based on what Namibian workers and firms already know how to do. Our teams built this map using Namibia's own trade data, validated by Namibian industry experts in national workshops, and cross-referenced against rising global and regional demand. This means our report suggests products that can realistically be made, and what is more important – that can realistically be sold.
Second, the findings. Our report identifies 353 products across 23 sectors where Namibia can realistically diversify – 60 of them directly linked to energy transition mineral value chains. Under a global export scenario, 200 of these products, from 9 sectors, represent $811 million in market opportunity. Import substitution adds another $117 million in goods Namibia currently buys from abroad but could produce at home. Developing a priority subset of these products could generate around 26,000 jobs across the economy. Take copper-based electrical components: switchgear, wiring, conductors. Namibia already has the Tsumeb smelter producing blister copper – the step toward fabrication builds on capabilities and facilities that exist today. The mines already buy these products; much of it is currently shipped in from abroad. Or take pharmaceuticals – sterile injectables, blood fractions, vitamins – products the analysis identifies as both commercially viable and socially urgent. A Namibian hospital stocking locally produced medical supplies: that is structural transformation you can hold in your hand.
Third, what comes next. Identifying products is only the first step. For each cluster, the report maps the specific bottlenecks and proposes targeted policies to close them. It answers not just "what could Namibia produce?" but "what exactly needs to change for Namibia to produce it?"
And Namibia does not start from zero. The Sixth National Development Plan, the Minerals Beneficiation Strategy, the special economic zones, the Port of Walvis Bay connecting the country to global and regional corridors – these are real assets. This report connects them to specific products, specific markets, and specific investment opportunities. Think of it as a GPS for industrial policy: you know the destination; here is a potential route, turn by turn.
Excellencies,
Two thirds of developing countries remain commodity dependent. The energy transition will reshape global trade for a generation. The question is whether it repeats old patterns or finally becomes the catalyst for the structural change that development demands. Namibia has the minerals, the institutions, and the ambition to make sure the answer is the latter. This report is our contribution to that effort. Now the real work – your work – begins. Thank you.