Mr. Chipoka Mulenga, Minister of Commerce, Trade and Industry
Mr Akiteru Mikami, Ambassador of Japan for Zambia
Ms. Beatrice Mutali, UN Resident Coordinator for Zambia,
Distinguished ministers, business leaders, dear friends,
Thank you, and good day to you all. It is a privilege to be in Lusaka.
Before I begin, I want to thank the Government of Zambia – and in particular the Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry – for co-organizing this launch and for the close partnership that made this work possible. I also want to recognize the Government of Japan, which funded this project, and the UNCTAD team led by Clovis Freire, who conducted this assessment in less than 9 months working alongside Zambian researchers, industry experts and policymakers. What we present today was built together, but it belongs to Zambia.
I come to Lusaka from the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, where we presented our latest Least Developed Countries Report on services as a lever for development. Later this week, I will be in Windhoek to present similar work for Namibia. In each stop, the question is the same: how does a country change what it produces, so that what it produces can change the country?
This is what is known as structural transformation, the subject at the heart of the study we are presenting today, and indeed, perhaps the oldest, most important question of development economics itself.
Because what separates a wealthy economy from a poor one is not, ultimately, the amount of money flowing through it. It is what that economy makes.
A ton of copper ore leaves Zambia worth a few thousand dollars. That same copper, turned into electrical wire, is worth twice as much. Shaped into a transformer, ten times as much. The mineral is identical. What changes is the work that surrounds it – the engineer who designs the component, the technician who operates the press, the small firm that supplies the packaging, the logistics company that moves it to market. Each of those steps is a job, a skill, a business. Multiply that across an economy, and you have prosperity that reaches beyond the mine gate. That is what development looks like in practice.
Now, this old challenge meets a new moment. The world is in the middle of the largest energy transformation in a century, perhaps ever. Electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar grids, battery storage – all of them run on critical minerals. Copper, lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel. Demand is surging, and the countries that hold these minerals – many of them right here in Africa – face a historic fork in the road. Zambia, one of the world's largest copper producers, sits squarely at this crossroads.
So the imperative is clear. But here is the problem. Everyone knows what the challenges are. Zambia doesn’t need a boom in clean technologies to know about the importance of structural transformation, or improving the business environment or investing in productivity. Commodity-dependent countries have not diversified for a lack of knowledge, much less for a lack of trying. They have not diversified because diversifying is hard. It requires optimal investments when resources are scarce and international finance pro-cyclical. Export markets that are never guaranteed. Skills that are not taught in classrooms but learned on the job. The problem is not the “what”. It is the “how”.
Imagine you are a minister of trade, and an international organization tells you to “diversify”. Your first question is: into what? Your second question is: starting from where? And your third question is: with what money, what skills, what infrastructure? The usual advice does not answer these questions. It tells you to cross the river without telling you where the stones are. That is what this report does differently. I want to highlight three things about it.
First, the method. Our teams used what economists call economic complexity analysis, and the intuition behind it is worth explaining. Every product a country makes – whether copper cathodes, cotton shirts or ice creams – requires a specific set of capabilities: certain skills, certain machines, certain regulations, certain suppliers. Countries do not jump randomly from one product to another. They move into products that are nearby – products that need similar capabilities to the ones they already have.
Picture a map where every product is connected to its neighbors by shared know-how. That map is called the product space, and it lets us do something very specific: take everything Zambia exports today and identify the products it is best positioned to move into next – not based on what looks good in PowerPoint, but based on what Zambian workers and firms already know how to do.
Our teams built this map using Zambia's own customs data, disaggregated province by province, validated by Zambian industry experts, and cross-referenced against rising global and regional demand. This means our report suggests products that can realistically be made, and what is more important – that can realistically be sold.
Second, the findings. Our report identifies over 400 products across 25 sectors where Zambia can realistically diversify – 73 of them directly linked to energy transition mineral value chains. Together, they represent at the very least $1.4 billion in potential export value and $229 million in goods Zambia currently imports but could make at home. Take downstream copper: bars, rods, tubes, electrical conductors. Zambia already smelts and refines – the step toward fabrication builds on the Copperbelt's existing engineers and facilities. The mines already buy these products; much of it is currently shipped in from abroad. Or take industrial chemicals – fertilizers, copper sulphates, carbonates – products that connect mining directly to agriculture. A Zambian farmer buying fertilizer made from Zambian minerals: that is structural transformation you can hold in your hand.
Third, what comes next. Identifying products is only the first step. For each cluster, the report maps the specific bottlenecks – and proposes targeted policies to close them. It answers not just "what could Zambia produce?" but "what exactly needs to change for Zambia to produce it?" And the good news is that Zambia does not start from zero. The Eighth National Development Plan, the economic zones, the technical education system, the Zambia Development Agency – these are real institutional assets. This report connects them to specific products, specific markets and specific investment opportunities. Think of it as a GPS for industrial policy: you know the destination; here is a potential route, turn by turn.
Excellencies,
Two thirds of developing countries remain commodity dependent. The energy transition will reshape global trade for a generation. The question is whether it repeats old patterns or finally becomes the catalyst for the structural change that development demands. Zambia has the minerals the world needs, and it has the foundations to turn them into something far greater. This report is our contribution to that effort. Now the real work – your work – begins. Thank you.