Critical energy transition minerals: Rapid assessment of value addition and diversification capacity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

This project helps the Democratic Republic of the Congo turn mineral wealth into diversified industries, jobs and resilient growth.

Overview

Economic diversification and productive complexity are vital for sustainable, long-term growth. Countries that produce more complex products —those requiring advanced skills, knowledge, and technology— tend to be more resilient and grow faster over time. For many developing economies, especially those dependent on primary commodities, diversification is key to structural transformation and reduced vulnerability to external shocks.

In Southern Africa, this imperative coincides with rising global demand for Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) such as copper, cobalt, graphite, lithium, and rare earths —essential inputs for renewable energy technologies like solar panels, batteries, and wind turbines.

Building on a previous initiative supported by the Government of Japan, this project applies UNCTAD’s analytical framework and methodology to the Democratic Republic of Congo, helping the country translate its mineral wealth —namely cobalt and copper— into value addition, economic diversification, and broader industrial development

About the Project

This project supports the beneficiary country in identifying high-potential opportunities for value addition and diversification, both within and beyond CETM-related value chains. It applies economic complexity and product space analysis, combined with in-depth consultations with the private sector, to offer a more accurate picture of domestic production and to guide evidence-based policymaking.

Objective

• Identify new, more complex products (goods and services) with strong export and import substitution potential, within and beyond the CETM value chains.
• Prioritize products and clusters through consultation with local industry experts and alignment with national development strategies.
• Recommend targeted policy instruments and institutional reforms to support diversification into the priority sectors.

Methodology

The project uses economic complexity and product space analysis to identify realistic pathways for value addition and diversification..

• Economic complexity assesses existing capabilities — skills, infrastructure, institutions and know-how — to determine readiness for more complex production.
• Product space analysis maps connections between products using UNCTAD’s dataset of 49,000 goods, revealing industries that are closely aligned with current capabilities and offer the strongest growth prospects.

This analysis draws other data sources such as on anonymized commercial transaction data —such as e-invoicing— and disaggregated national trade data to better reflect actual production and consumption patterns, complementing traditional trade statistics.

The project also includes:

• Stakeholder mapping across CETM value chains with government and civil society partners.
• Policy reviews to identify regulatory and institutional gaps.
• Workshops and consultations to validate findings with public and private stakeholders.
• Dissemination of results at national and regional levels, including through UNCTAD and UN country teams.

Intended Outcomes

The project will deliver a final report, featuring:

• Productive structure diagnostic: A detailed assessment of national production capacities using local data.
• Diversification opportunities:  Identification of high-potential products and sectors aligned with existing capabilities.
• Stakeholder validation: Consultations to prioritize realistic opportunities.
• Policy roadmap: Strategic recommendations on investment, innovation, and industrial policy to support value addition and diversification.

Link to the SDGs

This project directly contributes to:

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth 
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure