UNCTAD's quadrennial conference sounds a clarion call to strengthen the international trade system and promote development beyond export growth.
As trade policy uncertainty reaches record levels, ministers and policymakers meeting at the 16th United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD16) called for rethinking how global trade can better serve development.
Their discussion focused on how trade rules and policies can adapt to a shifting global landscape, ensuring that trade delivers jobs, investment and inclusive growth.
“Trade opens doors to development. For small countries especially, development without trade is nearly impossible,” said UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan.
“Reimagining trade to keep those doors open is the subject of this dialogue.”
Uncertainty is the new tariff
Trade remains a powerful engine for development, valued at $33 trillion in 2024, close to 30% of global GDP. But rising tariffs and shifting trade policies have added new costs to global commerce: Uncertainty itself.
Average tariff rates in major economies have surged, while unpredictable policy swings are reshaping supply chains and weighing most heavily on developing countries. UNCTAD has warned in its research that this “hidden tariff” raises costs, slows investment and threatens to widen inequalities.
South-South trade and services driving resilience
Despite mounting pressure from policy uncertainty and changing geopolitical dynamics, trade has shown remarkable resilience.
“72% of global trade still flows under WTO rules,” said Ms. Grynspan.
“South-South trade now equals North-North trade for the first time in three centuries. Regional integration has held the line.”
Services trade — less vulnerable to tariff shocks — grew 9% in 2024 and accounted for 60% of total trade growth, according to UNCTAD's latest Global Trade Update issued in early October.
But developing countries, particularly in Africa, still face persistent structural barriers, including infrastructure constraints: Their share of global trade remains below 3%, and many remain dependent on primary commodities.
Ministers also stressed the importance of regional cooperation and domestic policy alignment to help countries capture more value along supply chains.
"We need to shift the paradigm," said Julien Paluku Kahongya, Minister of International Trade of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
"Instead of just extraction, we need to process locally... And even if we develop [agriculture] locally, we still need to transport it."
A fairer, more predictable trading system
Ministers from countries including Bangladesh, France, Jamaica, Mozambique, Nepal and Poland underscored the need for a predictable, rules-based trading system that supports diversification, social inclusion and environmental sustainability.
"We're in a moment when the rules are being challenged," said Undersecretary of State Michał Baranowski from Poland’s Ministry of Economic Development and Technology.
"Poland has been the second fastest growing economy in last 20 years and has benefitted immensely from trade. Focusing on predictability is a must. We have to reimagine trade with eyes wide open – if we enter into competition we will all be worse off."
Reimagining trade beyond export growth
The ministerial roundtable emphasized that trade must support broader development outcomes – from job creation to climate goals – not just export expansion.
Participants called for a supportive international framework, fair treatment of least developed countries and stronger multilateral cooperation.
As global trade continues to grow but faces unprecedented headwinds, UNCTAD’s work will remain crucial to helping countries navigate uncertainty and rebuilding trust in the multilateral trading system.